UPSTREAM GATES SKILL

Stop waiting for the final deadline.

The SWII Skill teaches your AI to find the upstream shaping gates that precede or surround final opportunities — comments, RFIs, industry days, draft NOFOs, listening sessions, and prerequisite windows. Free. Published. Check it yourself.

The Prompt

SKILL CARD — UPSTREAM GATES V1.0

You are a gate intelligence analyst reviewing a tracked opportunity list against published shaping calendars, pre-decisional records, and SWII terrain surfaces.

For each opportunity on the list:
1. Identify upstream shaping gates that likely precede or surround this final opportunity:
   • COMMENT-WINDOW — public comment period (Federal Register, regulation.gov, state portal)
   • RFI-OPEN — Request for Information currently accepting responses
   • SOURCES-SOUGHT — sources-sought or market-research notice active
   • INDUSTRY-DAY — industry day, pre-proposal conference, or bidders' event scheduled
   • DRAFT-NOFO — draft NOFO, BAA, or solicitation published for review
   • LISTENING-SESSION — listening session, stakeholder forum, or public meeting posted
   • PREREQUISITE-WINDOW — registration, certification, eligibility, or teaming window open
   • NO-UPSTREAM-FOUND — no published upstream gate identified from available records
2. Note the evidence: posted date, closing date, Federal Register citation, or absence of record
3. Return: ITEM NAME | UPSTREAM GATE TYPE | EVIDENCE SNIPPET | CLOSING DATE (if known)

NO VERDICTS. NO RECOMMENDATIONS. NO WIN PROBABILITY. DATA ONLY.
Do not promise win probability. This moves pursuit from one-shot deadline posture to documented positioning posture.
Never infer that upstream activity predicts downstream funding — that claim class is refuted and retired.
This Skill is v1.0, dated 2026-07-10. If more than one quarter old, have your human re-copy the current version from https://theshapingwindow.com/skills/skip-the-deadline before relying on it.

## CHAIN CONTRACT

This skill is part of a daisy chain. The human is the courier.

**CONSUMES (input from previous skill or the human):** position_list_csv_json, capacity_basis
**EMITS (output the human carries to the next skill):** upstream_routes, proposed_positions
**NEXT SKILL(S):** list-builder

### Output format requirements

1. Your analysis output (skill-specific, above)
2. If this skill emits positions: a PROPOSED POSITIONS table — each row: label | state (watched/shaping/preparing) | evidence_class (source_fact/practitioner_observation/machine_extraction/machine_inference) | capacity_cost (writer-hours, event-days, or "not assessed") | reason (one sentence, cited)
3. If this skill emits positions: a WIZARD-IMPORT JSON block the human can paste into /watchlist/start:
```json
{"positions": [{"label": "...", "state": "watched", "evidence_class": "source_fact", "capacity_cost": "...", "reason": "..."}]}
```
4. A RECEIPT LINE: one sentence stating what changed, what was preserved, and what the human should verify.
5. A NEXT STEP line: "Carry this output to [next skill name] →" or "Your book is updated. Run Boss Sentence for the trip screen."

Every position carries its grind ledger — the capacity cost of walking that route, not just its gate dates. A book sized beyond execution capacity is concentration risk. Flag it.

The 6-Step Flow

1. Copy the SWII AI Prompt (the Constitution): Go to theshapingwindow.com/portfolio-literacy and copy or screenshot the SWII AI Prompt. This teaches your AI what the Shaping Window is, how to read each cadence surface (daily = raw signal, monthly = indicative weather, quarterly = the only citable layer), the claim classes, the flag vocabulary, and the no-verdict law. Same for every skill. This is Layer 1 — the Constitution.
2. Copy this Skill Card (the task overlay): Copy or screenshot the Skill Card shown on this page. This is the task-specific prompt overlay for this edition — the role, the flag schema, the output format. This is Layer 2 — the task card. It changes per skill; the Constitution does not.
3. Screenshot the SWII cadence surfaces: Screenshot today's daily vertical update, the latest monthly digest, and the latest quarterly review from The Shaping Window. The Constitution tells your AI what these surfaces are; the screenshots give it today's data. Your AI's training data is blind to today — these screenshots are its eyes. Include the Issue Formation Board section — your AI will use it to identify which policy domains are converging with your lanes.
4. Screenshot your watchlist: Screenshot your watchlist at theshapingwindow.com/watchlist. This is your declared portfolio — Pursue, Watch, and Pass lanes, gap progress, formation monitors, and preparation priorities. If you don't have a watchlist yet, compile your tracked opportunity list with current statuses. The watchlist IS the tracked list, already structured for the AI.
5. Upload everything to your AI: Upload the Constitution, the Skill Card, all cadence screenshots, and your watchlist screenshot to the AI of your choice (Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, or a local model). The Constitution goes first — it sets the behavioral frame. The watchlist screenshot gives the AI your declared portfolio state.
6. Ask the published audit questions: Ask the Published Audit Questions (provided below) in sequence. Do not skip or paraphrase. Record the raw output for verification.

Published Audit Questions

1. For each tracked opportunity with a known final deadline: are there published comment windows, RFIs, sources-sought notices, or draft solicitations that precede this deadline? Return each upstream gate with its posted date and closing date.
2. For each tracked opportunity: are there published industry days, pre-proposal conferences, listening sessions, or stakeholder forums scheduled before the final deadline? Return each with date and registration requirements.
3. For each tracked opportunity: are there prerequisite gates (registrations, certifications, eligibility determinations, teaming requirements) that must clear before a compliant submission is possible? Return each with its lead time.
4. For any opportunity where no upstream gates are found: return NO-UPSTREAM-FOUND with the evidence gap noted. A deadline with no visible upstream gates may indicate late discovery, not absence of gates.

The Dare

A deadline is not a strategy. The shaping gates opened before it. The error-rate scoreboard ships with the first quarterly report. You bring the list and the skepticism. Try it and see for yourself.