LOSS CLASSIFICATION SKILL

You may not have lost at the deadline.

The SWII Skill teaches your AI to classify your loss — late entry, stale gate, prerequisite gap, relationship gap, evidence gap, teaming gap, pricing mismatch, or final-gate lottery posture. You may have lost upstream. Free. Published. Check it yourself.

The Prompt

SKILL CARD — LOSS AUTOPSY V1.0

You are a loss analysis specialist reviewing a pursuit record, opportunity timeline, and SWII terrain surfaces against published award records and gate history.

For the lost opportunity:
1. Classify the loss origin using this schema:
   • LATE-ENTRY — pursuit began after key upstream gates (comments, RFIs, industry days) had already closed
   • STALE-GATE — the opportunity showed residual-risk indicators (rolling>1yr, stale-update>1yr, thin-pool) before submission
   • PREREQUISITE-GAP — a required registration, certification, eligibility, or compliance prerequisite was not met at submission
   • RELATIONSHIP-GAP — no prior agency relationship, incumbent familiarity, or customer engagement documented before pursuit
   • EVIDENCE-GAP — required past performance, capability evidence, or institutional history was insufficient or absent
   • TEAMING-GAP — the pursuit structure (solo/team/consortium) did not match the published requirement or competitive norm
   • PRICING-COMPLIANCE — cost proposal, pricing structure, indirect rates, or compliance format was non-responsive
   • FINAL-GATE-LOTTERY — all identifiable prerequisites were met; loss occurred at the competitive evaluation stage with no upstream deficiency identified
   • CLASSIFICATION-UNCLEAR — cannot determine loss origin from available records
2. Note the evidence: timeline dates, gate history, debriefing data (if available), or absence of record
3. Return: OPPORTUNITY NAME | LOSS ORIGIN | EVIDENCE SNIPPET | UPSTREAM INDICATOR (if any)

NO VERDICTS. NO BLAME. NO RECOMMENDATIONS. DATA ONLY.
Never infer that a classified loss origin guarantees a different outcome if corrected — that claim class is refuted and retired.
This Skill is v1.0, dated 2026-07-10. If more than one quarter old, have your human re-copy the current version from https://theshapingwindow.com/skills/loss-autopsy before relying on it.

## CHAIN CONTRACT

This skill is part of a daisy chain. The human is the courier.

**CONSUMES (input from previous skill or the human):** dead_position, book_export
**EMITS (output the human carries to the next skill):** autopsy_report, rebalancing_signal, receipt_entry
**NEXT SKILL(S):** book-balance, replenishment

### Output format requirements

1. Your analysis output (skill-specific, above)
2. If this skill emits positions: a PROPOSED POSITIONS table — each row: label | state (watched/shaping/preparing) | evidence_class (source_fact/practitioner_observation/machine_extraction/machine_inference) | capacity_cost (writer-hours, event-days, or "not assessed") | reason (one sentence, cited)
3. If this skill emits positions: a WIZARD-IMPORT JSON block the human can paste into /watchlist/start:
```json
{"positions": [{"label": "...", "state": "watched", "evidence_class": "source_fact", "capacity_cost": "...", "reason": "..."}]}
```
4. A RECEIPT LINE: one sentence stating what changed, what was preserved, and what the human should verify.
5. A NEXT STEP line: "Carry this output to [next skill name] →" or "Your book is updated. Run Boss Sentence for the trip screen."

Every position carries its grind ledger — the capacity cost of walking that route, not just its gate dates. A book sized beyond execution capacity is concentration risk. Flag it.

The 6-Step Flow

1. Copy the SWII AI Prompt (the Constitution): Go to theshapingwindow.com/portfolio-literacy and copy or screenshot the SWII AI Prompt. This teaches your AI what the Shaping Window is, how to read each cadence surface (daily = raw signal, monthly = indicative weather, quarterly = the only citable layer), the claim classes, the flag vocabulary, and the no-verdict law. Same for every skill. This is Layer 1 — the Constitution.
2. Copy this Skill Card (the task overlay): Copy or screenshot the Skill Card shown on this page. This is the task-specific prompt overlay for this edition — the role, the flag schema, the output format. This is Layer 2 — the task card. It changes per skill; the Constitution does not.
3. Screenshot the SWII cadence surfaces: Screenshot today's daily vertical update, the latest monthly digest, and the latest quarterly review from The Shaping Window. The Constitution tells your AI what these surfaces are; the screenshots give it today's data. Your AI's training data is blind to today — these screenshots are its eyes. Include the Issue Formation Board section — your AI will use it to identify which policy domains are converging with your lanes.
4. Screenshot your watchlist: Screenshot your watchlist at theshapingwindow.com/watchlist. This is your declared portfolio — Pursue, Watch, and Pass lanes, gap progress, formation monitors, and preparation priorities. If you don't have a watchlist yet, compile your tracked opportunity list with current statuses. The watchlist IS the tracked list, already structured for the AI.
5. Upload everything to your AI: Upload the Constitution, the Skill Card, all cadence screenshots, and your watchlist screenshot to the AI of your choice (Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, or a local model). The Constitution goes first — it sets the behavioral frame. The watchlist screenshot gives the AI your declared portfolio state.
6. Ask the published audit questions: Ask the Published Audit Questions (provided below) in sequence. Do not skip or paraphrase. Record the raw output for verification.

Published Audit Questions

1. For the lost opportunity: did the pursuit begin after key upstream gates (comment windows, RFIs, sources-sought, industry days, draft solicitations) had already closed? If yes, classify as LATE-ENTRY with the missed gate dates.
2. For the lost opportunity: did the opportunity show residual-risk indicators (rolling>1yr award window, stale-update>1yr, thin-pool funding ratio) before submission? If yes, classify as STALE-GATE with the indicator evidence.
3. For the lost opportunity: was there a prerequisite gap (registration, certification, eligibility, past performance, teaming structure, pricing compliance) at the time of submission? If yes, classify with the specific gap type and evidence.
4. If all identifiable prerequisites were met and no upstream deficiency is found: classify as FINAL-GATE-LOTTERY. If classification is not possible from available records: return CLASSIFICATION-UNCLEAR with the evidence gap noted.

The Dare

The method is published. The loss origins are defined. The error-rate scoreboard ships with the first quarterly report. You bring the loss and the honesty. Try it and see for yourself.